Traders have alighted on what some believe to be a one-way bet in the world’s most important commodity market: oil prices going to $100 a barrel. They have scooped up call options tied to Brent and West Texas Intermediate crude-oil prices reaching $100 by the end of next year. Oil prices haven’t topped that milestone since 2014, when a gush of U.S. crude depressed energy markets.

Owners of $100 options—now the most widely owned WTI call contracts on the New York Mercantile Exchange—are making a leveraged bet that oil prices will hurtle higher after already surging more than 40% this year. The roaring rally, goosed by thawing coronavirus restrictions, has lifted WTI prices to their highest level since 2018 at almost $70 a barrel and average U.S. gasoline prices above $3 a gallon, according to GasBuddy.

Barring an influx of investors into commodity markets or a slump in the dollar, oil demand would need to rise well above pre-pandemic levels in the fourth quarter for prices to hit $100 this year, according to JPMorgan Chase analyst Natasha Kaneva. She says that is all but impossible. Other grounds for caution include an increase in Iranian crude exports in the event of a nuclear deal with the U.S.

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